The Persistence of Early Childhood Maturity: International Evidence of Long-Run Age Effects
Kelly Bedard, Elizabeth Dhuey. Quarterly Journal of Economics 121(4), 2006, 1437-1472.
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Read in full, and the decisive paper for this site's purposes. It locates each country's own school-entry cutoff empirically, from the birth-month distribution in that country's TIMSS sample, and shows the score penalty for being youngest in the cohort tracks that locally defined cutoff wherever it falls. That is the whole argument in one result. The effect follows an administrative boundary that different countries drew in different places, which is exactly what an astrological effect could not do.
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- The Relative Age Effect
- For the decisive, cutoff-locating evidence.